The future: Kevin Love or Al Jefferson?

The season’s 37% over, the Wolves have seven wins, and there’s finally reason for optimism.

In the last ten games, the Wolves are 4-6, a better 10-game stretch than the Nets, 76ers, Bucks, Pacers, Wizards, and Warriors. Might not sound like much, but when the team wins about twice per month, any sign of progress is noteworthy.

The reason for the positivity?

Kevin Love.

He’s it.

The Wolves are a 30-win team when Kevin Love plays 30+ minutes per game. And that’s not an exaggeration.

Kevin Love possesses two skills that no other player on the current roster does: rebounding prowess and interior defensive awareness. Per 36 minutes, the 6-6 Kevin Love is averaging 17 points and 15 boards, including over five offensive rebounds per contest. Love, in nine games, is proving to be (much) more valuable than the current franchise player, Al Jefferson.

It’s not close, either.

Kevin Love is the best player on the team, and the Wolves front office should do everything in its power to try to trade Jefferson before other teams realize how dramatically one dimensional he is.

Love has improved in every major statistical category in his sophomore campaign. Every one. Per 36 minutes, he’s upped his shooting percentage to 48%, a particularly impressive feat considering he’s shooting from the perimeter almost six times more this year. He’s improved his interior passing, almost doubling his assist total to almost three per game; He’s doubled his steal total per game; and he’s decreased both his personal fouls and turnovers per game.

We know Love is an excellent rebounder, but is it possible that he’s actually underrated? Look at these stats:

Offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%): (an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor) = 100 * (Offensive rebounds * (Team minutes played / 5)) / (minutes played * (Team offensive rebounds + Opponent defensive rebounds)).

Love’s ORB% is 15.5%, up from 15.1% last season. Incredibly high. What this means is that Love grabs almost 16% of all available offensive rebounds when he’s on the floor. There are nine other players on the floor, five of whom are attempting to grab a defensive rebound, and Love snatches 16% of Corey Brewer’s shots that clank off the rim. For comparison, Dwight Howard’s ORB% is 12.6%.

Jefferson’s ORB%, for comparison, is 7.7%, almost 8% less than Love’s, and down almost 1/3 from last season.

Defensive rebounding percentage (DRB%): (an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor) = 100 * (DRB * (Team minutes played / 5)) / (minutes played * (Team defensive rebounds + Opponent offensive rebounds)).

Love’s DRB% is 30%, up almost 3% from last year. Again, truly exceptional, especially for a second-year, undersized power forward. What this means is that Love instinctively gets defensive positioning and, 30% of the time, grabs the rebound before any of the nine other players. The seven-foot Howard’s? 31.6%. Jefferson’s DRB% is 22.4%, down 2.5% from last season and the lowest percentage since his rookie season.

Love’s total rebounding percentage (TRB%), the percentage of total available rebounds grabbed while on the floor: 22.5%. Jefferson’s TRB%? 14.9%

Al Jefferson’s statistical output has declined in almost every major category this season. And the decreases shouldn’t be ignored. Per 36 minutes played:

Scoring: decreased over four points per game to 18.5.

Rebounds: decreased to the lowest RPG of his career, at 9.8.

Blocks: decreased to the lowest BPG of his career, at 1.0.

FG %: decreased to the lowest % of his career, at 47%.

Jefferson’s PER is down to 18.4, a decrease of almost five points from last year, good for 48th best in the NBA. Love’s, on the other hand, has increased from his rookie number of 18.3 to his current 22.7, good for 18th best in the league. More efficient than Carlos Boozer, Brandon Roy, Kevin Garnett, Deron Williams, and Amare Stoudemire.

To his credit, Jefferson is an absolute tactician offensively — a surgeon with an array of post moves that would make anyone short of Hakeem Olajuwon blush. Not particularly athletic, he’s added a semi-reliable 15-footer to go along with his interior moves, which makes him even more versatile and difficult to defend.

But as I’ve said before, Jefferson has absolutely no interest in playing defense. Zero. Not one iota of interest. Kevin Garnett used to talk about how defense is entirely about effort. Entirely about the ability to read opposing offenses, react to cuts and picks, and rotate to help on the weak side.

Jefferson was taught by Kevin McHale, so it makes sense that he wouldn’t have these capacities. But he’s so inept that it almost forces a double team on whomever he’s guarding, leaving the other three defenders to not only guard the other side of the interior, but the perimeter, as well.

Al Jefferson is relatively underpaid at $12 million per year (not even in the top 30 salaries in the league), and is still only 25, making him extremely valuable in any trade scenario. Trade him for a scoring shooting guard and a 2011 first-round pick, draft — if John Wall is gone at 2 — Derrick Favors, the 6-9 bruiser from Georgia Tech with the second pick, and hope to snag Cole Aldrich, who would immediately become the best center in franchise history the second he stepped on the Target Center floor, with the eighth pick.

If that happens, the lineup could be:

PG: Flynn/Sessions

SG: Ellington/player for whom the team traded Jefferson

SF: Gomes/ Brewer

PF: Love/Favors (could play together)

C: Aldrich/Hollins

Not only is this team immediately better defensively, but it’s also bigger, longer, more athletic, and much more inclined to participate in the run and gun offense David Kahn is trying to implement.

But the first step is realizing that building around Al Jefferson will only lead to what the franchise has been mired in for the last 20 years.

Mediocrity.

Mediocre is the best the Timberwolves can ever hope to be if they continue to pour resources into Jefferson. Realize what you’ve got in Jefferson: an undersized, relatively unathletic, purely offensive player. He’s the second or third option on a contender.

Sell high, Mr. Kahn. This is the time to make a move.